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Upper level low maintains scattered showers, thunderstorms

1 month 1 week 1 day ago Wednesday, May 27 2020 May 27, 2020 May 27, 2020 6:15 AM May 27, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A rather active pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Friday. After that, we will begin a slow transition into warmer and drier conditions.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will scattered about the area on Wednesday with some areas of heavy rain and gusty wind possible. Unlike Tuesday, today’s activity will be more sparse and some locations will miss rain. Thanks to clouds bubbling up around midday, high temperatures will be limited to the mid 80s. The overnight hours will be quieter but remain muggy with low temperatures in the low 70s.

Up Next: An upper level low will begin to weaken and move across the local area Thursday and Friday. With that occurring, there will still be enough instability available for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once this system moves farther east over the weekend, coverage in rain and thunderstorms will back down, humidity will ease a bit and afternoon thermometers will climb a little higher. Saturday through Monday will feature partly sunny afternoons with highs near 90 and clear nights with lows in the mid 60s.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Bertha formed near the coast of South Carolina just after 7am CT Wednesday morning. With maximum winds of 45 mph, the storm was moving northwest at 10mph. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach to South Santee River. Continuing to the northwest through Wednesday night, the center of Bertha will move onshore in the warning area and move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina and into west-central North Carolina by tonight. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression after moving inland and become a remnant low tonight. Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level low swirling over northeast Texas will continue to spin slowly eastward through Friday. While the forcing of a surface boundary will be absent, some positive vorticity advection coupled with daytime warming and the marine breeze will be enough to activate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some dry air being entrained into the upper level low will cut down rain coverage compared to Tuesday. High resolution models are putting the best chance for rain along the I-10/12 corridor and eastward to the North Shore. Any storms will be capable of downpours and gusty wind. By Saturday, the upper level low will start to move through our region and into the eastern U.S. This will drag a weak surface front through the region allowing dew points to drop to more comfortable levels for a few days. So while afternoons will stay warm, mornings and evenings will not feel too bad. Departing instability and lift will substantially trim the rain coverage. A ridge will build into the region from the west on Sunday or Monday providing a much warmer and drier atmosphere. This would lead to much warmer temperatures and lower rain coverage.
--Josh

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