Winds have shifted out of the southeast resulting in warmer and more muggy air moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. The first and obvious change resulting from this is that it does not and will not feel and chilly. The second change is into a more active pattern resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight: A frontal system will kick up showers and thunderstorms across Texas on Christmas Eve. This rain should take some time to translate east to the Capital Area. Most of the night will be dry. However, expect increasing clouds late, and much warmer lows in the mid 50s. Note that those lows may occur closer to midnight with thermometers rising through daybreak.  

Christmas Day: Ongoing southeast winds will lead to increasing moisture through the morning. This moisture will eventually help support numerous showers on Christmas Day as a weak frontal system provides some lift. Rain coverage will be spotty at first, increasing by the middle of the day and then exiting closer to dusk. A washout is not expected, but be prepared for occasional showers. Fortunately, severe weather and lightning are not major concerns, but a strong storm or two producing some lightning and brief downpours is not out of the question. Up to 0.5" of rain is possible with locally higher amounts on an isolated basis.

Up Next: While the rain will dry up on Thursday, fog could be an issue for the morning hours. Some breaks of sun are expected for the afternoon with a continuation of warm temperatures. The quieter weather just after the holiday does not mark an end to the unsettled pattern though. Another storm system will move in late week into the weekend ahead of a cold front. It will be slow to progress, and a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated later Friday through Sunday. All told, another half inch to an inch of rain could result during this period. This front appears to finally move through on Sunday, but even that won't produce a major temperature drop. There are no signs of a chill until at least early 2025.

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– Josh 

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