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Monday looks to be another hot one with near-record warmth. But an approaching cold front quickly push that out of the picture. A more fall-like pattern takes over as early as Tuesday.
Tonight & Tomorrow: Expect a mostly clear and quiet Sunday night. Look for a morning low near 70° in Baton Rouge, which is 5-10° above average for early October. There might be a slightly muggy feel on Monday, but no different from what the area has already been experiencing. It will be a hot with a high around 93° in the capital city. That will come close to the record high for the date (94° in 1911). Once past the afternoon, a cold front will slide into the region. This will bring some big changes going forward.
Up Next: A cold front passage on Monday night will result in several changes for the remainder of the week. The front's effect will be felt as early as Tuesday morning as cooler air arrives from north to south. Expect a wake up temperature on Tuesday in the lower-60s for Baton Rouge, with a few spots north of I-10/12 in the upper-50s. It will be warmer to the south. Relatively cooler air continues to push into the region on Tuesday afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid-80s under full sunshine. And that's the status quo going forward. Each day features abundant sunshine, lows close to 60°, and highs in the mid/upper-80s.
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The Tropics: Milton became a hurricane on Sunday as the storm rapidly intensified in the western Gulf of Mexico. This trend will continue in the coming days. Milton could become a Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday. The storm should encounter some wind shear closer to Wednesday which might result some weakening prior to landfall in western Florida. Regardless, Florida residents need to prepare for a major hurricane landfall on Wednesday. Life-threatening storm surge, high winds, and heavy rain are likely in the region. Locally, no major impacts are expected. Minor coastal flooding along east-facing shores and large swells at the coast are not out of the question.
Hurricane Kirk continues to lose steam as it moves through the subtropical waters of the North Atlantic. The storm is generating large swells which will elevate the rip current risk along the U.S. East Coast early in the week. Other than that, Kirk will have no major impact on the United States. The system will become post-tropical on Monday and then push east into Europe by midweek.
Following behind Kirk is Hurricane Leslie. This system will remain a hurricane for another day or so before weakening to a tropical storm. Leslie will pose no threat to land.
A tropical wave will move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves west across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron
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