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Gulf moisture to bring continued humidity, scattered thunderstorms

4 months 5 days 20 hours ago Monday, June 11 2018 Jun 11, 2018 June 11, 2018 6:19 AM June 11, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next several afternoons. Rain and cloud will curtail high temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect partly sunny skies to start your workweek, with scattered showers and thunderstorms late morning through afternoon. Typical with summertime rumblers, downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind will be possible. Showers should diminish around dusk. High temperatures will top out around 89 degrees°, with overnight lows near 74 degrees.

Up Next: Two areas of surface high pressure will camp out in the Gulf of Mexico, one off the Florida Coast and the other over southeast Texas. These systems will help to push Gulf moisture north and onshore through the week. This will continue to provide ample moisture for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to dominate the local weather pattern through mid-week. Humidity will also increase, which will cause high temperatures to cool off slightly, but the heat index will make it feel about 5-8 degrees warmer. The upcoming weekend could have an even further increase in rain chances depending on where a pocket of tropical moisture travels.

The Tropics: Late last week, the GFS forecast model was insistent on a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the weekend, this scenario trended less likely, as the model fell into agreement with the ECMWF model in showing just a plume of moisture from the Caribbean Sea through the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf Coast. This plume of moisture is likely to reach the western Gulf Coast by the upcoming weekend, increasing rain chances. Should the pathway of this moisture shift, local rain chances may increase as well. Either way, at this time, no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

Amidst a steady onshore flow with high low level moisture but only modest mid level moisture, the National Weather Service continues to point out the possibility of microbursts during daily thunderstorms. Therefore, some wind gusts in excess of 30mph will be possible over the next few days with an isolated severe thunderstorm possibly producing gusts over 60mph. The highest possibility of this occurring would be west of I-55. In addition to gusty wind, warm season storms are always acapable of a quick inch or two of rain and frequent lightning. Rain chances will remain elevated through at least the middle of the week as the region remains stuck between two weak areas of surface high pressure feeding moisture northward from the Gulf. Whereas last week forecast models were in total disagreement as to how the tropics would influence the local weather, today there is some more agreement. Models now depict a plume of tropical moisture rather than a developed storm surging northward by the upcoming weekend. As of now, this moisture is slated to feed into western Louisiana and Texas but a small shift east would result in much higher rain chances for the local area, so we will continue to monitor this.  

--Dr. Josh

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