The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) has officially released its highly anticipated annual outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. While the historical average (1991–2020) sits at 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, CSU’s 2026 outlook calls for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

This year, Dr. Philip Klotzbach and the research team point to an emerging El Niño as a driver for lower tropical cyclone activity. However, there is still a level of uncertainty when forecasting the strength of El Niño several months in advance. 

Additionally, the outlook mentions above average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean, but below average temperatures in the Atlantic. This pattern provides mixed signals in relation to an above average or below average season. Meanwhile, a strengthening El Niño could lead to increasing wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, which ultimately impedes the development of tropical systems. 

El Niño typically reduces the amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin because it increases the amount of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere that typically prevents circulations like tropical systems from becoming fully formed. The opposite is true for La Niña, which typically reduces the amount of vertical wind shear.

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather the two phases of ENSO influence changes in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly, or hurricane.

As of April, ENSO was in the La Niña phase. A quick transition to El Niño, possibly a strong one, is expected over the next couple of months. Exactly when El Niño emerges and at what strength is still somewhat unclear. However, current projections do show El Niño taking hold late summer or early fall, near the peak of hurricane season. 

CSU's forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using over three decades of past data. These seasonal forecasts were originally developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was the lead author on these predictions for over 20 years and continued as a co-author until his death in 2018. You can review the entire prediction, the scientific explanation, and the reason such a forecast is made, RIGHT HERE. In-season updates are issued in June, July, and August as basin conditions continue to evolve. 

Since 2002, pre-season predictions have shown modest accuracy. CSU outlooks fall within a reasonable margin of error (3 for named storms, 2 for hurricanes, 1 for majors) about 60% of the time. Those from NOAA have been only slightly better than a coin flip. In fact, simply using the expected state of ENSO (El Niño or La Niña) has historically, more accurately predicted above (La Niña) or below (El Niño) average activity than the aforementioned outlooks. 

The team at CSU Colorado State University and the Storm Station remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. NOAA’s official outlook is expected in Late May. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.

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