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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Tuesday morning video forecast

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Cool temperatures will persist through much of the week. Sunshine will not.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Beyond a freezing morning, expect plenty of afternoon sunshine through Tuesday. Winds will remain light and northeasterly and therefore high temperatures will not go too far above 50 degrees. The low temperature forecast is tricky for Tuesday night. Some clouds are expected to advance in from the west before daybreak. The clouds would hold thermometers just above 32 degrees except for a few isolated pockets north and east of Baton Rouge. If the clouds arrival is delayed, a brief freeze is possible elsewhere.  

Up Next: Dry surface air will keep rain chances at zero through Wednesday. However, a warm front will lift into the region from the southwest. Clouds will thicken through the day thereby keeping thermometers well below average in the 50s. Rain is expected to develop overnight into Thursday.

A surface low and cold front will cross the Baton Rouge area, producing showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms throughout most of the day. Fortunately, the storm system will only stick around for about 24 hours; the cold front will sweep through on Friday morning and clear the area out in time for next weekend.

THE EXPLANATION:

Tuesday morning water vapor imagery revealed a deep plume of moisture streaming into the Southwest U.S. from the Pacific Ocean. Rain had begun across Arizona with mid to high clouds eastward into central Texas. These clouds will overspread the area overnight into Wednesday and should arrive just in time to prevent most locations along and south of I-12 from reaching freezing. Despite the advance in clouds, the mid to low levels of the atmosphere will be too dry for any rain to develop during the daylight hours of Wednesday. As winds turn more southeasterly Wednesday night, low level moisture will arrive. Showers will develop from southwest to northeast overnight and should overtake most of the area by sunrise Thursday. Onshore flow and rising dew points will keep thermometers in the 40s and 50s. An upper level trough and associated surface frontal system will move across the area on Thursday maintaining unsettled weather. Working with ample moisture, these features will produce enough lift for steady periods of rain. There could be some thunderstorms development but low instability and shear make the threat for severe weather very low. Thermometers could sneak up into the 60s due to the brief advance of Gulf moisture. The whole complex will shift east by Friday and expect a nice drying trend leading into the weekend. Because the storm system has Pacific and not Canadian origins, no significant cooling will occur behind the front. Near average temperatures are projected for the weekend.  

--Josh

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