A cold front will push through the area with showers and thunderstorms leading to a weekend chill. Another rain event may be followed by the first freeze of the season.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will be yet another dreary one as a cold front chugs through the area. Showers will carry through much of the day as northerly winds transport much cooler air into town. Look for early day highs in the 60s and late afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Showers will end overnight with thermometers tumbling into the mid 40s.  

Up Next:  One dry afternoon is expected to kick off the weekend with sun, a few clouds and a crisp high temperature in the upper 50s. Clouds and showers will quickly return on Sunday as a storm system develops in the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a day or two period of unsettled weather. Since temperatures will not have much time to recover, a chilly rain is expected. A much stronger cold front will blast through by the middle of next week with forecast model guidance suggesting lows in the low to mid 30s and highs in the low 50s.

The Tropics: As we continue deeper into the final month of hurricane season, the Atlantic Basin is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

On Friday, an upper level longwave trough will amplify, dig into the Southeast U.S. and push a strong cold front through the area into the Gulf of Mexico. Rain and a few thunderstorms are expected with this front and the staunch northerly wind shift will result in morning high temperatures and late evening low temperatures on Friday. The frontal passage will briefly end rain chances and usher in much cooler air Friday night. This weekend will likely have highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s. An area of low pressure will then develop along the tail end of the cold front over the baroclinic region east of the Texas coast. From there, an eastward track along the old cold front will lead to a swath of precipitation stretching northward into the central Gulf Coast. There is still some uncertainty as to the northern extent of heavy precipitation but guidance has been consistent in showing a dreary, chilly period Sunday into Monday. Should the heavier rain push inland, 1-2 inches is a reasonable expectation through Monday evening. Forecast models are likely not handling temperatures well and a much smaller diurnal temperature range will occur Sunday and Monday due to the clouds and precipitation. From the upper 50s on Sunday, there should not be much more cooling than the low 50s overnight. Should a warm front develop with the Gulf low, it is likely to stay well south of the area and therefore Monday highs will stay close to 60 degrees.

As a spoke of the longwave trough digs even deeper on Tuesday, yet another cold front is poised to punch through the area, ending rain and sending lows into the 30s for the first time this fall season. GFS and ECMWF ensembles have some Baton Rouge area readings near 34/35 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Areas in southwest Mississippi are likely to experience the first freeze of the season. Climatologically, this is not far from normal for the first “cold blast” of the season but the first freeze usually holds off until the last week of November.

--Dr. Josh

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