After a freezing start, sunshine and shifting winds will begin a pattern of moderating temperatures through midweek. The next cold front will deliver active weather on Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday morning temperatures bottomed out in the upper 20s for the first time since January 19! High pressure directly overhead will result in clear skies and light winds through Tuesday with high temperatures chugging into the upper 50s. Overnight should remain mainly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Some typically cool spots north of I-10/12 could briefly drop to freezing again.

Up Next: As the high pushes east, thermometers will break back into the 60s on Wednesday as winds shift southerly. Warmer air will increase cloud cover during the afternoon causing lows to stay milder Thursday and Friday. A cold front will return showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday. One or two storms could act up, but there are no strong signals for widespread severe weather. The front and clouds will linger into Friday followed cooler and drier conditions for the weekend.

THE EXPLANATION:

High pressure will move from west to east across the local area on Tuesday and into the Southeast U.S. by Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight. As return flow kick into gear on Wednesday afternoon, highs will be close to normal. While forecast model guidance is not agreeing as well as it did for the last storm system, both global models capture the idea of a cold front moving across the local area through the end of this week. Most of the precipitation is expected to occur Thursday and Thursday night. The depth of moisture return is somewhat questionable, as is the instability. There will be plenty of shear though and the surface low may pass just far enough north to allow the entire area to be in the warm sector of the system. Therefore, the possibility of severe weather is on the table but not high. Appropriately, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a 1/5 “marginal risk” for severe weather. The upper low associated with this storm system will cross the area on Friday. After a brief dry period, expect spotty, lingering showers and a breezy, cloudy, chilly day. Beyond Friday night, expect dry, seasonable weather for the weekend into early next week.

--Dr. Josh

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