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Dreary conditions give way to chilly weekend

1 week 4 days 19 hours ago Wednesday, November 07 2018 Nov 7, 2018 November 07, 2018 6:08 AM November 07, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Showers will hold in the forecast through Friday. Sharply cooler temperatures are anticipated for the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a weak front drifts north of the area. Rather warm, muggy conditions will persist with highs in the low 80s. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with spotty showers and lows in the mid 60s.  

Up Next:  A stalled front will continue to maintain modest rain coverage around the region through Thursday. As that front jaunts south, temperatures will cool a bit, likely only topping out in the mid 70s. A much sharper cold front will move across the area late Thursday into Friday. This system will bring rain and thunderstorms. Additionally, quite a turnaround in temperatures is expected. Friday’s high will likely come shortly after midnight with thermometers steady or falling through the day and all the way down to the id 40s by Saturday morning. Despite sun, high temperatures may barely get into the 60s on Saturday. The forecast for Sunday is still questionable from a wet or dry perspective. Stay in touch.  

The Tropics: As we continue deeper into the final month of hurricane season, the Atlantic Basin is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak front will meander over the region through Thursday. Shortwaves pin wheeling around a digging longwave trough will enhance periods of showers. The next shortwave will send the front southward on Wednesday afternoon. This will once again increase rain chances, likely even higher than Tuesday. This time, the front will stall closer to the coast allowing for cooler temperatures on Thursday with scattered showers continuing—especially closer to the boundary. By Friday, the main upper level longwave trough will amplify, dig into the Southeast U.S. and push a strong cold front through the area into the Gulf of Mexico. This will briefly end rain chances and usher in much cooler air beginning Friday night. This weekend will likely have highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 40s. Forecast models continue to be aggressive in developing an area of low pressure over the baroclinic region east of the Texas coast. From there, an eastward track along the old cold front will lead to a swath of precipitation stretching northward into the central Gulf Coast. There is still some uncertainty as to the northern extent of the precipitation but guidance has been consistent in showing a dreary, chilly day on Sunday.

As a spoke of the longwave trough digs even deeper, yet another cold front is poised to punch through the area next week. Lows will likely get into the 30s for the first time this fall season.

--Dr. Josh

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